Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Preseason Predictions For Postseason Awards

Another Major League Baseball season is about to begin, and with that you wonder what guys will step up and lead their teams to the playoffs, and to the World Series. You also wonder who will be this year's MVP, Cy Young award winner, and like usual the normal names pop up.

MVP

The league's Most Valuable Player, in terms of personal accolades this is probably the biggest next to career home
runs list. Who are the favorites? How about reigning MVP Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers, has had great success since making his comeback to the baseball scene, and has all the tools to be as effective as he was last year. He has an amazing eye, power to all fields, and the ability to change a game with a single swing, no matter the inning, count, or situation.

Miguel Cabrera did everything he could last year to win MVP, that is except play on a winning team. He had 38 home runs, 126 RBIs, and hit for a .328 average. He was just unfortunately on a team that went 81-81 and finished 13 games out of first place. If the Tigers can have a more productive year as a whole, as many believe they will, he will be a front runner with another year like that.

Always a viable option when it comes to the MVP talk is Alex Rodriguez, especially with the spring training he has had. In their spring finale he got a bases loaded walk that drove in his 15th run, to go along with an over .400 average and six home runs. He always has the potential to be the MVP,and even with an injury
shortened season by25 games last year he was able to hit 30 home runs and have 125 RBIs.

They all have the ability to take the award, along with other players not mentioned, but if you are putting your m
oney down on someone, choose Rodriguez. He seems to be in a good place right now, if healthy there is no reason to not expect at least 35 home runs and over 140 RBIs, and he has a chip on his should. Cabrera has had huge issues with alcohol, including a much publicized DUI, and just not someone you can seem to trust at this point with those issues. Hamilton would be a great second choice, but he too has been suffering injuries on a regular basis recently, and given the longevity of Rodriguez's career in comparison to Hamilton the safer bet is probably on Rodriguez, who can also be a gold glove caliber third baseman. A real outside shot that you might not hear others mention, Felix Hernandez, the pitcher from Seattle. He is bound to have another amazing year, and if the Mariners could somehow put things together, he would be a focal point to their success.

In the National League you can look at last year's winner in Joey Votto and see all the makings of another winner this year. Last year he batted .324, knocked out 37 home runs, and drove in 113 runs, worthy numb
ers for the award, and at 27 he is on the upswing of his career.

Then their is the perennial preseason favorite to take the award in Albert Pujols, and what is there no
t to love about Pujols. He only hit .312 last year with 42 home runs, and 118 RBIs. Those numbers are great, just not nearly as impressive as his career numbers. The lowest home run total he has had as a professional is 32, never batted below last year's .312 average, and has had over 120 RBIs in six of his 10 professional seasons.

The next candidate to look out for is a real up and comer, Troy Tulowitzki of the Colorado Rockies is on his w
ay to being the star of baseball, and 2011 might be the perfect year for him to really break out and grab some hardware. It will certainly depend on his team's ability to win, because he could have a season much like Cabrera did last year, all the numbers except the right one in terms of wins. Last year he hit .315, had 27 home runs and knocked in 95 runs, but this year he is primed to breakout even more as he had four home runs and 12 RBIs, while batting .311 in 45 spring at-bats.

There are other options here as well, Prince Fielder could definitely be in the running if the Brewers a
re able to step up and win a good amount of games. The choice here though is obvious, you can almost not go into the season and assume that Pujols is going to be the best player in the league and deserve the award based on numbers and the eye test. Tulowitzki just might not have the team that is worthy of an MVP candidate like Cabrera last year, and Votto has to show he can do it again and again before you go into the year expecting it.

Cy Young

The CyYoung award is something that tends to be more obvious than a lot of people want to let on. Those that were in the running the previous year are simply thrust into the roles as preseason favorites. When you look at the American League you have the Hernandez's, C.C. Sabathia's, and David Price's to look to.

Last year Hernandez was magnificent, though his record was only 13-12 because of the lack of success of the Mariners as a team, he posted his lowest ERA at 2.27, 232 strike outs, and threw six complete games. He has electric stuff, and at 24 he is only on the up and up.

Sabathia continued his spectacular career, and good run as a Yankee, as last year he had a 21-7 record, 3.18 ERA and was able to strike out 197 batters. Why would you assume he would do less this year? He has had 197 strike outs each of his first two years in New York, and is averaging 20 wins a season. Since 2007 his overall record has been 76-32, and has not had an ERA over 3.83. That is consistency and a horse you can feel confident betting on for the Cy Young.

Then there is Price, who will be leaned on more heavily this year than last, but seems to be a Roy Halladay type that can handle it. The young lefty went 196 last year, with a 2.72 ERA and 188 strike outs, not bad in your second full year as a starter. Price was poised and predicted to be this type of pitcher since he was drafted, and he did not disappoint. His two years he is 29-13 and given up an impressive number of only 32 home runs. Price is probably more of the wild card here than the other two, but a good bet to be there in the end.

Smart money here might be on Sabathia simply because he is Mr. consistent, and given he got in better shape coming into this season he might be poised to have one of his best seasons. He also has those Yankees bat
s to help him on those nights where he does not quite have it. The guy to go with though is Hernandez, he is young and only getting better. He has stuff that you dream about, and barring an injury set back you can assume he will strikeout over 200 and win at least 10 games without any real run support. Do not sleep on Mark Buerhle or Justin Verlander though, two guys that could definitely disrupt this trio.

In the National League it is all about the Phillies, and then Tim Lincecum. Halladay, Cliff Lee, and even Roy Oswalt could be in the running along with Lincecum. The easiest bet of the preseason might be that the Phillies will win the Cy Young Award, the number of chances they have is unbelievable.

Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are the obvious front runners, they both are going to easily win 15 games, and would not be surprised if one of them got close to 30. Lee might be the benefactor of the frustrated hitters being given to him by Halladay, day two will be difficult for them to recover.

Lincecum is the last guy you want to face if you are not in a series with the Phillies, last year he was 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA to go along with 231 strike outs. The last three season he is 49-22 with an average of over 250 strikeouts in that time. Lincecum is one of the hardest pitchers to figure out, and if anyone is going to give the Phillies a run for their money it is going to be him.

Given the level of success these guys all have it is really a guess, when pushed to make a guess you have to go with Halladay. For my money he has been the best pitcher in the
2000's by far, and after a perfect game and postseason no-hitter he has to be the favorite, almost like picking your favorite child. Then there are the outliers in Carlos Zambrano, Chris Carpenter, and look out for Clayton Kershaw.