Preseason Predictions For Postseason Awards

Another Major League Baseball season is about to begin, and with that you wonder what guys will step up and lead their teams to the playoffs, and to the World Series. You also wonder who will be this year's MVP, Cy Young award winner, and like usual the normal names pop up.

MVP

The league's Most Valuable Player, in terms of personal accolades this is probably the biggest next to career home runs list. Who are the favorites? How about reigning MVP Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers, has had great success since making his comeback to the baseball scene, and has all the tools to be as effective as he was last year. He has an amazing eye, power to all fields, and the ability to change a game with a single swing, no matter the inning, count, or situation.

Miguel Cabrera did everything he could last year to win MVP, that is except play on a winning team. He had 38 home runs, 126 RBIs, and hit for a .328 average. He was just unfortunately on a team that went 81-81 and finished 13 games out of first place. If the Tigers can have a more productive year as a whole, as many believe they will, he will be a front runner with another year like that.

Always a viable option when it comes to the MVP talk is Alex Rodriguez, especially with the spring training he has had. In their spring finale he got a bases loaded walk that drove in his 15th run, to go along with an over .400 average and six home runs. He always has the potential to be the MVP,and even with an injury shortened season by25 games last year he was able to hit 30 home runs and have 125 RBIs.

They all have the ability to take the award, along with other players not mentioned, but if you are putting your money down on someone, choose Rodriguez. He seems to be in a good place right now, if healthy there is no reason to not expect at least 35 home runs and over 140 RBIs, and he has a chip on his should. Cabrera has had huge issues with alcohol, including a much publicized DUI, and just not someone you can seem to trust at this point with those issues. Hamilton would be a great second choice, but he too has been suffering injuries on a regular basis recently, and given the longevity of Rodriguez's career in comparison to Hamilton the safer bet is probably on Rodriguez, who can also be a gold glove caliber third baseman. A real outside shot that you might not hear others mention, Felix Hernandez, the pitcher from Seattle. He is bound to have another amazing year, and if the Mariners could somehow put things together, he would be a focal point to their success.

In the National League you can look at last year's winner in Joey Votto and see all the makings of another winner this year. Last year he batted .324, knocked out 37 home runs, and drove in 113 runs, worthy numbers for the award, and at 27 he is on the upswing of his career.

Then their is the perennial preseason favorite to take the award in Albert Pujols, and what is there not to love about Pujols. He only hit .312 last year with 42 home runs, and 118 RBIs. Those numbers are great, just not nearly as impressive as his career numbers. The lowest home run total he has had as a professional is 32, never batted below last year's .312 average, and has had over 120 RBIs in six of his 10 professional seasons.

The next candidate to look out for is a real up and comer, Troy Tulowitzki of the Colorado Rockies is on his way to being the star of baseball, and 2011 might be the perfect year for him to really break out and grab some hardware. It will certainly depend on his team's ability to win, because he could have a season much like Cabrera did last year, all the numbers except the right one in terms of wins. Last year he hit .315, had 27 home runs and knocked in 95 runs, but this year he is primed to breakout even more as he had four home runs and 12 RBIs, while batting .311 in 45 spring at-bats.

There are other options here as well, Prince Fielder could definitely be in the running if the Brewers are able to step up and win a good amount of games. The choice here though is obvious, you can almost not go into the season and assume that Pujols is going to be the best player in the league and deserve the award based on numbers and the eye test. Tulowitzki just might not have the team that is worthy of an MVP candidate like Cabrera last year, and Votto has to show he can do it again and again before you go into the year expecting it.

Cy Young

The CyYoung award is something that tends to be more obvious than a lot of people want to let on. Those that were in the running the previous year are simply thrust into the roles as preseason favorites. When you look at the American League you have the Hernandez's, C.C. Sabathia's, and David Price's to look to.

Last year Hernandez was magnificent, though his record was only 13-12 because of the lack of success of the Mariners as a team, he posted his lowest ERA at 2.27, 232 strike outs, and threw six complete games. He has electric stuff, and at 24 he is only on the up and up.

Sabathia continued his spectacular career, and good run as a Yankee, as last year he had a 21-7 record, 3.18 ERA and was able to strike out 197 batters. Why would you assume he would do less this year? He has had 197 strike outs each of his first two years in New York, and is averaging 20 wins a season. Since 2007 his overall record has been 76-32, and has not had an ERA over 3.83. That is consistency and a horse you can feel confident betting on for the Cy Young.

Then there is Price, who will be leaned on more heavily this year than last, but seems to be a Roy Halladay type that can handle it. The young lefty went 196 last year, with a 2.72 ERA and 188 strike outs, not bad in your second full year as a starter. Price was poised and predicted to be this type of pitcher since he was drafted, and he did not disappoint. His two years he is 29-13 and given up an impressive number of only 32 home runs. Price is probably more of the wild card here than the other two, but a good bet to be there in the end.

Smart money here might be on Sabathia simply because he is Mr. consistent, and given he got in better shape coming into this season he might be poised to have one of his best seasons. He also has those Yankees bats to help him on those nights where he does not quite have it. The guy to go with though is Hernandez, he is young and only getting better. He has stuff that you dream about, and barring an injury set back you can assume he will strikeout over 200 and win at least 10 games without any real run support. Do not sleep on Mark Buerhle or Justin Verlander though, two guys that could definitely disrupt this trio.

In the National League it is all about the Phillies, and then Tim Lincecum. Halladay, Cliff Lee, and even Roy Oswalt could be in the running along with Lincecum. The easiest bet of the preseason might be that the Phillies will win the Cy Young Award, the number of chances they have is unbelievable.

Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are the obvious front runners, they both are going to easily win 15 games, and would not be surprised if one of them got close to 30. Lee might be the benefactor of the frustrated hitters being given to him by Halladay, day two will be difficult for them to recover.

Lincecum is the last guy you want to face if you are not in a series with the Phillies, last year he was 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA to go along with 231 strike outs. The last three season he is 49-22 with an average of over 250 strikeouts in that time. Lincecum is one of the hardest pitchers to figure out, and if anyone is going to give the Phillies a run for their money it is going to be him.

Given the level of success these guys all have it is really a guess, when pushed to make a guess you have to go with Halladay. For my money he has been the best pitcher in the 2000's by far, and after a perfect game and postseason no-hitter he has to be the favorite, almost like picking your favorite child. Then there are the outliers in Carlos Zambrano, Chris Carpenter, and look out for Clayton Kershaw.

Possibly Lose One, Gain Another

The New York Yankees and their fan base are on a roller coaster of emotions right now, and it all has to do with their pitching staff. They might be losing a starter, but they were able to strengthen the bullpen with a move that will end up costing them a first round pick.

They were able to get a premier setup man in Rafael Soriano, who will be able to step right in where Kerry Wood left off as the man before Mariano Rivera. The Yankees are also believing that whenever Rivera were to call it quits, perhaps in the next couple seasons, Soriano will be able to fill right in.

This signing, a three year contract for a reported $35 million, comes off the heels of Andy Pettitte telling the team that they should not, "count on him." General Manager Brian Cashman did say however, that if Pettitte comes back, it will be with New York. The Yankees could definitely use Pettitte given that another starter Javier Vasquez has signed with Florida in the offseason.

ESPN Senior Write Buster Olney then tweeted this morning, "Pure speculation: Would it make sense now for NYY to sign Grant Balfour, too? He wouldn't cost them a No. 1 pick, because of Soriano deal." Yankees are making moves in the pitching world.

World Series Preview!

With the Yankees and Phillies meeting up for the first time since the Yankees won the World Series it was a preview of the matchup come the end of the baseball season. With the lineups and rotations each has they were essentially displaying the game one matchup between Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia.

Deep breath...alright now let's calm down and take yesterday for what it was. A spring training game in March. It was not a preview of anything other than what lineup might be seen for the next game. While quite possibly, maybe probably, the favorites to meet there again after all, it was far from a preview of anything significant.

With that being said, yesterday was a nice debut and start for both pitchers, and something for the fans to get excited about in the right frame of mind. They both threw two scoreless innings, and were comfortable after the game. Halladay did have the better outing in the short stint though, as he was able to strike out three while not having a baserunner in either inning.

Again, in the scheme of things this did not mean much, but baseball is back. The two top teams from last year saw their aces throw well, and both teams are ready for another long run. Let's just let it get started before we get too excited.

Upton moving Uptown

Justin Upton is no doubt a talent, and now that talent will be staying in Arizona for quite awhile. He will be making a pretty penny too. Upton signed on Wednesday with the Diamondbacks for $51.25 million over six years. Age 22, Upton had a historical year last year, as he had a batting average of .300, 26 home runs and 86 RBI's. Just the sixth time in the last five years.

Upton has been dubbed the future of the Diamondbacks franchise and now with this deal he is set to be there through 2015. Having had enough pressure on him before the deal, having had his brother BJ selected number two in the draft, and then to be chosen number one by Arizona in 2005, Justin has no fear of the future, and really neither should Arizona. Especially with his confidence:

I want to be great, that's the thing. If you want to be great, then you set your
goals higher.

He is coming off an all star season, has all the tools to be a great player, and is humble. He is the guy that Arizona wanted, and now has for years to come:

We view him as a core player, one of our key pieces, and as we view the
next six years the kind of guy we want to build around.

Managers of the Year

The straws that stir the drink, or I guess they might be the hand stirring the straw that is stirring the drink. The managers are often criticized, but then comes this time of the year when we look at how good of a job they did. The races for this award are usually not that interesting, mostly because you will have someone, in the National League this year for example, that is the overwhelming choice.

So as it is, Jim Tracy in the NL, manager of the Colorado Rockies, might as well have had his speech ready when they clinched a playoff spot. It is as simple as this, when Tracy took over the Rockies were 18-28. They finished in the playoffs with a record of 92-70. Enough said, he wins. You can talk about the jobs done by Tony La Russa and Bruce Bochy but they fail in comparison. It was a great turnaround and a great managing job.

Then when you look at the American League it is probably down to Joe Girardi and Mike Scioscia. The two teams with the best records, and were handled the best by their managers. Sure, Don Wakamatsu had a great year in turning the Mariners around, but they also got some better talent. Then Ron Gardenhire did a great job without two of his best players for a good portion of the year, and made a valiant run into the playoffs, but you have to look at the intangibles.

While Scioscia had a great year, especially after the death of Nick Adenhart, I think that you have to give it to Girardi. He came into the season on the hot seat after the Yankees had not made the playoffs the previous year for the first time in 12. He had a star that was hurt both physically with his hip, and then mentally and emotionally with the steroids scandal in Alex Rodriguez. He had three new, big signees in C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira that he had to get in there and win now with. They themselves started out slow, 13-15 before Rodriguez returned, and the team finished 103-59 with the best record in the majors.

There were a lot of managers that may have deserved it, but Girardi stepped up with the pressure and media circus surrounding them and led them to where they should be. A slow start into the best record in the league, and that is got to be worth something.

American League Cy Young Award

So this is an interesting race because of the intangibles that are involved. The players that are up for the award are of different records and credentials, as well as teams and baseball class really. In the end there are probably four pitchers that are legitimately in the discussion, including Felix Hernandez, Zach Greinke, C.C. Sabathia, and Mariano Rivera. You have guys that are in the middle of the pack, a low level team, and the new World Series Champions, along with the fact that one is a closer.

Greinke is a good place to start, because in all reality he should probably be the guy to win the award this year. Greinke had an ERA of only 2.16, while striking out 242 batters (which was more than all three of the others mentioned, 25 more than Hernandez who was second), and had more shutouts that the other two starting pitchers combined. That is all in his favor, not to mention that as the ace of the Kansas City Royals he won 16 games. The team only won 65 games, so he won almost a quarter of their games as the starter by decision. You put him on another team who knows what his win total is, and that has to be a factor.

Hernandez was no slouch himself, he only had 19 wins in 24 decisions, to accompany an ERA of 2.49, in a hitters ballpark in Seattle. He also pitched more innings than Greinke, while also giving up only 11 more earned runs. On the other hand he also gave up 20 more walks than Greinke, along with four more home runs.

Sabathia, the big hurler from the Yankees is a different animal to look at, because of the atmosphere that surrounded a lot of his starts, and what he did in the most meaningful starts. He also had 19 wins, and was an inning eater when his team needed him to be. His ERA was a solid 3.37, though that is a detriment despite because of the lower ERA's of the others in the running. While giving up only 18 home runs in what was a hitter's ballpark, his opponents avg. was also worse than Greinke's at .230, and Hernandez's at an impressive .227.

Finally, there is Rivera who has some history on his side. Having a season in which he achieved the status of 500 saves is something that has to be in his favor. Being a closer you have to look into his stats more, but in 66.1 innings pitched Rivera was able to strike out 72 batters, had an ERA of 1.76 and 44 saves in 46 chances, finding himself third in saves. It will be very hard however for Rivera to win as a closer, especially given the seasons by the starters he is going up against.

In the end Zach Greinke was amazing the whole year, and he had the best statistics amongst those that are up for the award, all while playing in Kansas City. I think that if Greinke does not win the award that it is a mistake by all those that voted.

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The Yankees spend money, we get it

I have to be honest, as a Yankees fan last offseason I liked getting the players, but I knew that they were setting themselves up. Either they win and bought a championship, or they lose and wasted their money TRYING to buy a championship. Then come postseason and they are talking about the core-four (they being the media), and I am thinking alright, well at least I do not have to listen to the buying stuff anymore.

Then come the fans, the bitter ones, that all they want to do is talk about buying championships. Enough already, because it really is getting old, and you need to come with something better than that. Look at the roster, and you will be surprised with what you see. Sure they "bought" C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and M.C (he goes by Mark but I just saw the initials trend going) Teixeira.

Let us go past the core-four though, and look at the rest of the team. Robinson Cano was signed by the Yankees in 2001 and was in their minor league system until being called up in 2005. Joba Chamberlain was drafted by the Yankees at number 41 in the 2006 MLB Draft after a stellar career at Nebraska. Phil Hughes was drafted by the Yankees in the 2004 MLB Draft in the first round. Brett Gardner was drafted by the Yankees in the 2005 MLB Draft in the third round following his junior year of college. In the same draft that they got Joba the Yankees drafted David Robertson in round 17. As was the case with Cano, the Yankees signed Melky Cabrera when he was just 17, back in 2001.

These players, along with the core-four were all homegrown products. They were drafted and signed by the Yankees, and are making their careers with the Yankees. Now, I am not saying that these guys all mean more than the A-Rods, Teixeiras, Sabathias, but they do mean something. The Yankees are paying big time players, but their farm system and scouting is getting them great players too. Enough with the buying of championships.

This list does not even include guys that they brought up through the system and elected to let them leave, i.e. Alfonso Soriano. Yeah you might have heard of him, among others. The Yankees know and evaluate talent as well as any team.

Last time I checked, Pedro, Manny, Ortiz, Schilling, Damon, Lowe, Foulke and others were not coming through the Red Sox farm system.